Economists say vaccination may increase GDP in second semester

Movimentação na região da 25 de março, em São Paulo, em meio à pandemia da Covid

In an interview with Cnn This Tuesday (first), economist Alessandra Ribeiro said that Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second semester is linked to the pace of vaccination against Kovid-19 in the country.

The expert showed growth of the Brazilian economy, which grew 1.2% in the first quarter of this year, compared to the last three months of 2020, reported IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

“Brazil had a 4.1% drop in GDP last year and our estimate is for an expansion of 4% [para este ano]. This is a good start, but we need to look at the dynamics of the following quarters to implement this 4% number. We have slightly more expressive growth, particularly in the third and fourth trimesters, and this increase is closely related to the vaccination hypothesis and a certain return to normality in July and August ”, Ribeiro explained.

According to the expert, the result of Brazil’s GDP in this first quarter is similar to other countries whose economy had declined last year.

“Like the United States, which had a decline of about 3.5% in GDP and will see an increase of 6.5% this year. Now, is the recovery speed in Brazil as strong as the United States? No, it is modest, and we have some limitations here, including monetary and fiscal stimulus that are much less expressive than other economies such as the United States and China this year. “

Movement in the midst of the Kovid-19 pandemic, in São Paulo, on the territory of 25 March
Photo: Tiago Queiroz / Estado Content (9.dez.2020)

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