How can Australia qualify for the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup semi-finals after loss to Afghanistan?

How can Australia qualify for the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup semi-finals after loss to Afghanistan?

Australia faced a huge upset at the hands of Afghanistan in the Super 8 match.

Match No. 48 of the 2024 ICC T20 World Cup saw one of the biggest upsets in the history of the competition as Afghanistan defeated Australia for the first time in international cricket.

The Mitchell Marsh-led side lost to Rashid Khan’s side by 21 runs at the Arnos Vale Ground in Kingstown, St Vincent on Saturday night.

That loss not only snapped Australia’s unbeaten streak in the tournament but also put the 2021 T20 World champions in a near-win position against India in their final Super 8 game.

They beat Bangladesh by 28 runs (DLS) in their first Super 8 match, India beat Bangladesh and Afghanistan, a win over Afghanistan would have sealed a semi-final spot for Marsh’s side. However, the loss now opens up the possibility for Afghanistan to make the semi-finals as they will face Bangladesh in the final Super 8 match.

India top the Group 1 rankings with a healthy net run rate of +2,425. The Asian giants have one foot in the semi-finals and just need to avoid a big defeat to the Aussies. Australia are second with one win and one loss and an NRR of +0.223. Afghanistan are third, with one win and one loss, and an NRR of -0.650. Last in the group is Bangladesh, who are almost out of the semi-final race with two losses.

The remaining two matches in Group 1 are IND vs AUS (Game No. 51) and AFG vs BAN (Game No. 52) on June 24. Afghanistan will have the advantage of knowing the exact scenario based on the result of IND vs AUS.

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Australia T20 World Cup 2024 Semi-Final Qualification Scenario:

If Australia beat India and Afghanistan lose to Bangladesh, Marsh’s side will advance to the no-frills semi-finals of the NRR. If Australia lose to India and Afghanistan beat Bangladesh, the Aussies will be eliminated.

If Australia and Afghanistan win the final Super 8 match, the difference will be due to their net run rate. One way for Australia to secure their place in the semi-finals without worrying about the AFG vs BAN result would be to beat India by a big margin so that their NRR overtakes India. Then India will be threatened by Afghanistan.

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About the author: Cory Weinberg

"Student. Subtly charming organizer. Certified music advocate. Writer. Lifelong troublemaker. Twitter lover."

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