Brazil showed a less robust economic return than emerging peers during the new coronovirus epidemic in 2020, primarily to create measures such as emergency aid for more than 60 million people.
However, the country has already grown significantly High debt And stopped taking permanent measures such as reforms to revise the public budget in view of social problems, such as unemployment, advances.
Compared between 14 countries (7 emerging and 7 developed), appears in Brazil Fifth best position When the criterion for GDP (GDP) is estimated in 2020. It ranks second after China, Russia, the United States and Japan.
The data are from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and were compiled by the FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas).
The position in the 2020 ranking was achieved after the issuance of a significant loan Support anti-crisis measures, Which produced the second largest fiscal stimulus package in Latin America (11.1% of GDP), according to the World Bank.
Rafael Muñoz Moreno, a senior economist at the World Bank, says the Brazilian measures were strong and comprehensive.
“Brazil’s retaliation was huge. It was a Package with many features, Social relocation, to assist companies and keep jobs, ”he said.
Another point considered positive was Actual implementation of measures. About 40 days after the first case was confirmed, emergency aid began to be credited to the population accounts.
“Not all countries have been successful in implementation [as medidas anunciadas], And we are talking to millions of Brazilians about receiving money in their accounts. “
He considers the speed of applying the existence of the fundamental Previous social security network Built on previous governments.
“Brazil already had systems in place for this. The fact that it already has a single registry [de recebedores de programas sociais]The fact of already having a Bolsa Familia, all of this made Brazil a Fast response“He says.
On the other hand, The measures cost R $ 620 billion And will increase Brazil’s gross debt from 75% to 91% of GDP. Among gross values, the value is already over R $ 4.7 trillion.
In recent months, the national treasury has suffered More expensive interest And lower maturity due to factors such as greater risk perception of investors in the long term.
Hey Significant increase in debt It will not be exclusive to Brazil. Countries such as Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru will see growth of more than 10 percentage points of their obligations in relation to GDP.
The major difference between Brazil and its peers in the World Bank report is that the country’s credit growth has already started. Very high base, Is of the same level with Argentina.
Therefore, Munoz says that the country should enter the second part of the game and Face structural changes Rebalancing and growing accounts.
“We’ve entered a moment when we have to Oral correction, As their urgency has increased. They are more essential than ever ”, he says.
One of the main objectives is to accelerate development Create jobs. IMF data collected by the FGV forecast that unemployment in Brazil will rise above 14% in 2021, the second largest of all 15 economies analyzed (not worse than South Africa alone).
According to the IBGE (Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics) methodology, the unemployment rate has already reached one Record 14.2% in November.
Marcel Balasiano, a researcher in the field of applied economics at FGV / IBRE (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getuel Vargas Foundation) says that the country Pandemic abuse.
He remembers facts like Health Ministers Exchange Amid a crisis caused by new coronoviruses and increased infections, which forced budget spending.
Self Wait for vaccination Developed countries have already vaccinated their populations, it meets the need for more extraordinary measures and delays the country’s recovery, he says.
Despite this, Balasiano says that, even without the epidemic, the situation in Brazil It wouldn’t be so encouraging, Activity grew by 0.2% per year on average over the last ten years. “Coronovirus is not the root of our problems, it reinforces them,” he says.
For him, Growth spurt This is even more necessary after Kovid-19 as the country entered the epidemic without fully recovering from the 2015 and 2016 crises.
“Must Recovery of loss of that decade. That’s why reforms are so important, “he says.” Those listed by experts are administrative, tax and other reforms that encourage competition.
For example, OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), the government argues Spend efficiency improvement, Increase productivity and improve professional training policies.
The organization said in a report this month that A. Ambitious reform program To improve regulation and competition, reduce barriers to foreign trade and strengthen institutions, and economic governance will boost GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points per capita per year for 15 years.