Eurasia says the Iranian president will respect the initiative if the United States and Iran close the nuclear deal before Ibrahim Raisi takes office on August 3. If it doesn’t, Raisey will be interested in completing it quickly, “given the substantial economic benefits it will bring”, says the consultancy in a report, which has a 65% chance of a settlement this year. , which resulted in withdrawal from some US sanctions against the Persian country.
Raisi was declared the winner of the presidential election. Eurasia says the state has intervened in an “unprecedented way” to ensure the victory of the Conservatives, which would undermine its legitimacy in the long run. The winning candidate, by then, was headed by the country’s judiciary and publicly declared himself in favor of the nuclear deal, pledging to move soon to lift the sanctions.
Eurasia claims that if a deal with the US is reached, Raisi’s rigid economic and political beliefs will limit the scope for significant foreign investment. The consultancy believes that the framework should separate Tehran from the West, indicating a retreat from the years of President Hassan Rouhani.
As a risk to the scenario, Eurasia cites a potential post-election mess, which could eventually break off talks with powers by a nuclear deal involving the United States. She says she doesn’t see any signs of it now, but remembers that such episodes can happen unexpectedly in the country. Another risk mentioned by Eurasia is that Raisey may want to review what has already been negotiated and start the conversation from scratch. For the consultancy, following their statements in support of a deal, this risk appears low.