You fees Futures closed at medium- and long-term maturities, while short rates were stable on Monday with holiday-compromised free time and liquidity in the United States, where there was no trading with stocks or bonds.
Despite the maintenance of a cautious climate in the international scene with the crisis between Russia and the West, the prospect of an inflow of outward flows supported by a Celik forecast above 12% continued to support both exchange rate and interest rate corrections.
The interbank deposit (DI) rate for January 2023 closed at 12.375% (regular) and 12.365% (extended), from 12.388% in Friday’s adjustments, and the DI rate for January 2025 fell from 11.401% to 11.34% (regular) and Got to 11.35. % (extended guideline).
The DI for January 2027 closed at 11.21% (Regular) and 11.225% (Extended), with a rate of 11.311%. The forward curve closely followed the movement of the exchange rate, reaching a low when the dollar also hit the bottom of the day. Around R $ 5.08. The real was once again the absolute draw between the emerging currencies, mostly falling against the dollar.
“Brazil has given way to everyone, paying much higher interest than its peers, for example, 55% higher than Mexico”, highlights Andre Parfito, chief economist at Necton Investimentos. Roberto Campos Neto, the President of the Central Bank, promoted by Canal Agro+, said that only in Brazil and Russia, the core interest rates are above the neutral rate. “Chile, Colombia and Mexico have been surprising lately, with the action being many times (stronger) than expected,” he said.
On Wednesday (24) the attraction of the flow “intensifies” based on the IPCA-15 of February. “The index should still be high”, says Perfect. In research conducted by Projection Broadcast, the mean for projections is 0.87%, compared to 0.58% in January. In the 12 months, the median is 10.63%, up from 10.20% in January.
The assumption is that the effect of the dollar’s fall on inflation is, in a way, neutralized by the progress of commodities. Oil prices rose between 2% and 3% amid geopolitical tensions. The spot dollar closed at R$5.1070 (-0.64%). In the afternoon, the exchange rate failed to stay below R$ 5.10, but still, today’s level is considered surprising given the fundamentals of the economy.