three prominent economists of the early years of real plane Agree with the need to create a third way for the dispute bolsonaro I Lula In the presidential election next year.
However, not all of them are optimistic about the electoral viability of more options for the Centre.
Also, the combination of political, economic and fiscal uncertainties makes it difficult to make accurate predictions about the economic outlook ahead.
These were the main points of the debate on macroeconomics. Former Finance Minister Pedro Malana, O Gustavo Franco, former chairman of the Central Bank this is Edward Amadeos, former Labor Minister and former Secretary of Economic Policy in the Ministry of Finance.
event panel Investor 3.0 was mediated by Empiricus Chief Strategist, Felipe Miranda, today morning.
It’s too early, too early, too early…
“I hope that with the emergence of a credible alternative in the 2002 elections, our future can be built,” former minister Malan said in one of his interventions in a debate organized as part of the 12th anniversary celebrations of the Empiricus.
However, he pointed out that it is still relatively early. “Before the party conferences, in June next year, a lot of water will go out”, he said.
The important point, according to Malan, is that “people may abandon individual projects in favor of something new and more promising”.
try to look optimistic
Recognizing that he attempted to make optimistic remarks, Gustavo Franco highlighted the existence of demands for moderation in political debate.
“Politicians believe that extremists will move to the center in search of votes,” the former BC president said.
“I don’t see any point in giving moderation speeches for Lula and Bolsonaro now, but at some point they will need to move towards the average voter,” Franco said.
polarization obstructed the way
Eduard Amadeo, for his part, sees a difficult path forward for the creation of the Third Way, especially given political polarization, but says he expects it to happen.
“I really root for the third way, but in such a polarized country with a central electoral platform it is difficult to be attractive. Attracting the youngest is difficult”, he said.
GDP estimate depends on the election
In Pedro Malan’s estimation, the growth forecast for 2022 will depend on the process of making expectations regarding the elections. Also, markets would expect an election debate.
“We saw it in 2002,” the former minister said, referring to the dollar’s rise in light of the assumption of victory by former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in that year’s elections.
like a wave in the sea
On the other hand, the former BC president said that he sees the rise in prices globally as a wave that must be overcome.
“In addition to this alarming situation in the current inflation, there is a component of the supply chain of commodities where the exchange has not appreciated due to the rise in commodity prices.”
However, the pressure is not likely to end for him. “This is the way out of the pandemic. You have to wait for the wave to pass.”
In his speech, Amadeo drew attention to the response of major economies to the pandemic and highlighted points that are currently little explored in the national economic debate, but which should be looked into in the near future.
“Globally, the role of fiscal policy has changed radically. There is a perception that it should be more proactive with plans to increase the structural deficit in both Europe and the United States”, Amedeo told the recent US Congress. Citing the example of the trillion-dollar infrastructure package approved by
“BC’s currency is also different. .
“The future inflation burden due to non-cyclical components will have to be analyzed differently from the analysis done up to 2019.”