To justify crisis, Bolsonaro distorts isolation utility

To justify crisis, Bolsonaro distorts isolation utility

In today’s live (7), President Jair Bolsonaro misrepresented the need for social isolation measures during the COVID-19 pandemic to try to justify the economic problems facing other countries such as Brazil and inflation .

Restrictions such as the temporary closure of trade had an impact on the economies of many countries, but several scientific studies indicate that isolation was important not only to save lives, but also to control the economic damage caused by the pandemic. Was.

To support his allegations, Bolsonaro read a series of headlines about economic crises around the world, linking them with the adoption of restrictive measures by several countries, including Brazil.

However, when he contested the election as a “stay home, economy we’ll see later” policy, the president never said isolation was important to contain Covid and prevent deaths if there is no vaccine or study . The importance of the measure for the recovery of the economy.

Isolation saved lives

Numerous scientific studies have proven the effectiveness of restrictive measures to restrict coronavirusEspecially at a time when there was no vaccine against Kovid. The strictest form of these measures is the so-called lockdown, when the movement of people is restricted without emergency reasons. In Brazil, measurement was not the rule, and even for short periods.

Even last year, articles published in the journal Nature already presented estimates of the initial effects of the restrictive measures. one of them, to tackle contagion reduction measures adopted in 1,700 different places in Asia, Europe and the United States, suggested that more than 140 million infections had been postponed or postponed thanks to restrictions. otherOf the 11 European countries, it is estimated that as of May 2020, 3 million lives had been saved by the restrictions.

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In Brazil, research by universities such as UFRRJ (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro), UFG (Federal University of Goias) and UFPR (Federal University of Paraná) also pointed to the importance of isolation measures in 2020. pandemic and saving lives, as uol check one year ago.

This year, in June, it was released one discovery Fiocruz Pernambuco, developed in partnership between UFRPE (Federal Rural University of Pernambuco) and IFPB (Federal Institute of Paraiba), examined the evolution of the daily number of deaths due to COVID, considering the panorama of 43 countries . The survey showed that countries proactive in implementing preventive measures such as wearing masks and social distancing have higher predictions of fatality from COVID-19. In practice, this means that there has been no moment of an explosion in deaths from the disease in these countries.

“Therefore, our findings make it clear that these preventive measures are efficient in combating the lethality of COVID-19”, say the scientists.

These results are not surprising: transmission of the coronavirus occurs primarily through droplets that are spread in the air when people speak, cough, sneeze or simply breathe. Therefore, avoiding social contact and wearing a mask helps prevent the virus from passing from person to person.

Crisis will be worse without separation

The isolation measures resulted in a reduction in economic activity, with a loss for workers and businesses around the world and is still being felt. But experts argue that the dilemma between slowing COVID’s progress and recovering the economy is false: if countries had not adopted sanctions, the economic consequences would have been worse.

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Also in 2020, Frederico Guanais, deputy head of the health department of the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), Briefly in an interview with RFI: “To protect the economy, it is necessary to control the spread of the virus. Without control, the human, social and economic damages of epidemics are enormous. Ultimately, the impact on the economy is the pandemic, not the control measures.” virus.”

An article published in April this year had the same motto in the scientific journal The Lancet. According to the study, eradication, not mitigation, of Sars-CoV-2 brings the best results for health and economy.

From an analysis of the number of deaths, GDP performance in the first 12 months of the pandemic, and the level of isolation adopted, the researchers concluded that countries that took proactive action to immediately stop community transmission had better health and economic outcomes.

The study was produced by researchers from the University of Oxford and the London School of Economics in England, and institutions such as INSEAD and the National Center for Scientific Research in France. The article makes the reservation that “despite all indicators in favor of abolition” [do vírus]”, the analysis does not prove a “causal relationship” between different responses to the epidemic and different outcome measures.

A survey conducted on the experience of the United States during Suffering Spain, which took place in the early 20th century, showed that the adoption of restrictive and permanent measures of social isolation during a pandemic can bring about rapid economic recovery And strong after its completion. According to the study, North American locations that responded more readily to the 1918 pandemic, adopting social isolation measures, recorded a stronger recovery the following year.

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in an interview For TAB in June 2020, economist James K. Galbraith, a professor at the University of Texas (USA), corroborated the idea: “If we don’t control the virus, nothing else will matter”.

About the author: Sarah Gracie

Sarahis a reporter covering Amazon. She previously covered tech and transportation, and she broke stories on Uber's finances, self-driving car program, and cultural crisis. Before that, she covered cybersecurity in finance. Sarah's work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Politico, and the Houston Chronicle.

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