- Author, Ion Wells
- Roll, BBC News political correspondent
A blue and winning machine for so long that some of its core members could barely remember anything else.
But his run – which produced Conservative prime ministers in four successive elections – had a dramatic ending.
Many conservatives are nearly speechless and are still processing the situation.
One of them told me they were “not compatible” with voters.
Now the Conservatives are beginning to figure out what went wrong with their strategy and leadership, and what they will do next.
When I talk to conservatives, several themes come up again and again.
Some argue that the Labour Party’s policy proposals were not very different from those of its opponents, but believe that the British electorate’s choice was based more on a perception of “competence”.
Seismic events from Brexit to Covid and multiple leadership disputes have split the party into ideological fragments. Some Tories have spent more energy plotting to bring each other down than the opposition – and never really put things right.
From partying during pandemic lockdowns to sexual misconduct allegations and a budget that contributed to rising interest rates, scandals have wildly shaken the trajectory.
When I asked former party boss Mark Spencer during the campaign if the party had any conduct problems, he mentioned that other parties have also had to suspend MPs for bad behaviour – which is true – but he acknowledged that it happened infrequently.
Then there was the undoubted desire for change – a word the Labour Party used in its campaign.
The cost of living, NHS waiting lists and small boats carrying immigrants were issues raised by voters – and they felt things were getting worse rather than better.
The late entry of Nigel Farage into the election meant that this last issue became a particular problem for the Conservatives, with some right-wing voters moving to Reform UK (a radical right-wing party) in search of tougher immigration policies and higher taxes.
The rhetoric and policies he adopted to win over former voters caused some more centrist Conservatives to leave the party for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
This was a more comfortable shift for some centrists who did not feel they could vote for Jeremy Corbyn, Keir Starmer’s predecessor, and a Labour Party seen as more left-wing in its policies.
Did these circumstances mean that defeat was inevitable? Most of the Tories I spoke to described the result as “not unexpected”, but some believe the scale of defeat could have been smaller.
There have been some mistakes that could have been avoided – such as Rishi Sunak leaving the D-Day celebrations early.
Although Boris Johnson was also prone to misgivings, some of his fans felt Sunak did not reciprocate voters’ fascination in the same way. The former prime minister still chanted ‘Boris! Boris!’ at last-minute rallies to try to energise the campaign.
There remains confusion among some as to why Sunak decided to call an election in July.
His campaign guru, Isaac Levido, argued for a later date — hoping that by then there would be more “measurable” results to demonstrate that his policies were having a positive impact.
For example, the flight of asylum seekers to Rwanda, or the reduction of interest rates.
But he lost that argument. And conservatives had little evidence that some of his policies were working when he addressed voters.
The risk of delaying the decision to call an election was that more bad news could emerge for the Tories – more Channel crossings this summer, more criminals being released because of overcrowding in prisons, or some universities going bankrupt.
But in terms of politics and identity, what more could conservatives do? That’s where their focus will be now.
What – and who – could come next?
Sunak has confirmed he will step down as Conservative leader once steps have been taken to choose a successor.
There have been rumours in recent weeks about whether an interim leader would be appointed to avoid embarrassment if, for example, the former prime minister had to attend Prime Minister’s Questions – sessions in Parliament in which the prime minister and opposition leaders debate every Wednesday -independently.
Could it be someone who has served in cabinet before – such as Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly or even Jeremy Hunt, who almost returned to the House of Commons (the equivalent of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies)?
In that case, it should probably be someone who doesn’t really want to run for leadership in the future.
Otherwise, Sunak could remain in office until the next Conservative leadership contest is over.
There are some MPs who have been working behind the scenes for a long time to strengthen their support, including Kemi Badenoch (the betting favourite), who is on the right of the party, and Tom Tugendhat, who is more towards the centre.
Former candidates such as Suella Braverman and Sunak’s former ally-turned-critic Robert Jenrick are also expected to run.
Both spent time in the Home Office, are on the right of the party and have criticised the government’s record on immigration.
However, an interesting point to make is who the remaining Conservative MPs are and what this could mean for those who enjoy support within the parliamentary party.
I take a brief look at the new intake of Conservative MPs and who they support in the first Conservative leadership contest of July-September 2022.
Interestingly, the majority are Sunak supporters, including a large portion of Liz Truss supporters.
Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch lost some key allies on the right of the parliamentary party. Some of Tugendhat’s supporters also left.
Why are the trends of the remaining MLAs important? Well, partly because it will determine how the Conservative Party decides to shape itself in the future.
Will they decide to choose someone from the right of the party, such as Mrs Badenoch, Mrs Braverman or Jenrick, to avoid the growing influence of Reform UK, which has already won many seats?
Some party members argue that not being tough on issues such as immigration was part of its downfall.
Or do you see a return to the centre with a candidate like Tugendhat or Hunt to try to regain some of the space that Labour is now trying to occupy on the political spectrum?
Some party members argue that the Conservatives’ right-wing tilt was part of the problem and that it alienated socially liberal but fiscally conservative voters.
The answer will be the result of many fights and examinations of conscience in the weeks to come.
