A solar prophecy with good news for civilization as we know it

A solar prophecy with good news for civilization as we know it

The sun is shining again.

An international panel of scientists announced on Tuesday that the sun has risen from a quiet part Its 11-year sunspot cycle And now entered the 25th circle. (The number of sunspot cycles goes back to 1755.)

Researchers predict that the next cycle will be much calmer.

Solar scientists track the cycle by drift and count the number of sunspots, which indicate the level of Ursa in the Sun’s magnetic fields. The eruption of sunspots radiation can be called solar flares and at the same time the vast reserves of cones are known as the exhaust of coronal mass. If a large coronal mass ejection hits the Earth, it could support modern civilization, knocking out satellites and affecting the continent’s blackout.

A solar explosion in 1859, known as the Carrington event, disrupted telegraph systems. Today, the world is interconnected with more electricity, and Large transformers that are part of the power grid are considered particularly weak..

As economists wait months to announce the beginning or end of a recession, scientists delay such announcements about the solar cycle, as they take more than 13 months to avoid being deceived by short-term fluctuations in solar activity. Count the sunshine of time. Nine months ago, in December, the solar eclipse reached its peak.

“It’s been growing slowly but steadily since then,” said Lisa Upton, a solar scientist at the Space Systems Research Corporation and co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, sponsored by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Said.

Over the past half-century, solar cyclones have gradually weakened, leading some scientists to speculate The sun may be around for a nice quiet period. The last solar maximum, with 4 breasts sunspot number 114, was the weakest since 1928 and the fourth weakest.

The prediction panel expects activity below this solar cycle to be less than seven, with a top of 115 in the sunspot number, give or take 10. It will be like the last cycle. The maximum is predicted to be in July 2025.

The panel’s second co-chair, Douglas A. of the Space Weather Forecast Center in Boulder, Colo. “If this proves to be true, it will make the Bicycle 25 very similar to the Solar Bicycle 24,” said Bisekar. That said, a very active cycle reaches a sunspot number of over 200.

The predictions made by individual scientists still vary widely, with some predicting a more calm cycle and others hoping to return to higher levels. But Dr. Upton and Drs. Bisecker said the panel easily agreed, relying on models that use magnetic field measurements in the sun’s polar regions to determine what will happen in the coming years.

Dr. “We are very good at modeling the development of polar magnetic fields,” Upton said. “This is one of the best indicators for the upcoming cycle applet and was one of the key features seen by the prediction panel.”

He said there were other indications that the cycle would remain calm, including a large number of spotless days during the solar eclipse. But if the sunspot cycle increases faster than expected in the coming months, it could be a sign that experts may have underestimated the intensity of the upcoming cycle.

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Even during a weak solar cycle, the sun can release huge explosions. In 2012, an explosion ripping through the Carrington event erupted from the surface of the sun – but fortunately it was not aimed at Earth.

Yet, the problems of a silent sun add to the fact that our planet will not experience a solar catastrophe in the next 11 years.

About the author: Raven Weber

Musicaholic. Unapologetic alcohol maven. Social media expert. Award-winning coffee evangelist. Typical thinker.

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