Scientists have developed a mathematical model to determine if US states are in a ‘second growth period’ of coronavirus infection.
Researchers at the University of Sydney, Australia, looked at the data and determined any state with a ‘second spike’ that was less than a fifth of the first, not a true second wave because it was so small.
Using this method, they found that by the end of July, at least 31 states, such as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, were in second growth.
About 13 states, including California, Texas and Georgia, have seen infection rates only slightly lower, and are not going down, so they were still in their first waves.
Meanwhile, New York and New Jersey managed to completely flatten their curves, and their first growth was “completely over” with no other growth.
The team says the research could help local and state parliamentarians determine when to ease restrictions given the gap between declining rates of infection with stable or insufficient infection.
Scientists have developed a mathematical model to determine if US states are in a ‘second growth period’ of coronavirus infection. Photo: The bodies were transported in a refrigerated truck serving as a temporary mortuary outside Wycombe Hospital during the April 4 coronavirus epidemic in Brooklyn, New York.
Still in the first wave: 13 states like Georgia (left) and California (right) were found in their first waves. This is because there is no significant decline in the growing number of cases in these states from January to July.
Now in the second wave: At least 31 states, including Florida (left) and Ohio (right), were considered their second increase. These states saw an initial increase followed by a decrease in infections and then a second increase
A PhD student co-author at the University of Sydney’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, Dr.
Instead, health officials should look for identifiable local maxima and minima, indicating when the extras reach their peak and when they exceed the performance. ‘
For the study, published in the journal Chaos, the team looked at data from all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia from January 21, 2020 to July 31, 2020.
The researchers added pairs of raw daily cases to account for fewer pairs that typically occur on Saturdays and negative numbers that are correcting daytime errors.
After blurring the data, the math model finds the top and bottom, and identifies a turn.
A bend is defined as the path of ascent of a circle of curves that suddenly descends or rotates.
Peak highs and lows also have to be separated by a certain amount.
For example, with less than one-fifth of the cases in the second wave, the first case is not eligible for the second wave, because it is very rare, say researchers
The number of cases is rising over a full seven-month period in 13 states, including California, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas.
Because of that, they They are thought to have survived an earlier attempt to oust him.
Wave Over: New York (left) and New Jersey (right) managed to flatten their curves after their first wave and were found to be in no increase.
The researchers identified 31 states, including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the sequence TPTP, meaning zero case first at the top, then another tank and peak.
This means that these states are currently in their second wave, which is the initial increase followed by a decrease in infection and then a second increase.
Meanwhile, New York and New Jersey flattened their curves by the end of July, and so only one movement was experienced in each.
The other four states, Arizona, Utah, Maine and Vermont, are still falling short of their first increase (the last two states) and the second (the next two states).
“It’s not a predictive model,” James said.
“This is an analytical tool that should help policymakers determine the assessments to be performed in covid infections.”
Co-author of the Center for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Tanshua in Beijing, Dr.
“The real ethic of this paper is that Covid-19 is very contagious and very difficult to control,” he said.
‘A right turn, where new cases are legally in decline and do not just show steady fluctuations, should be seen before any restrictions are relaxed.
