The number of deaths due to Kovid-19 increases and ICUs (Intensive Care Unit) start giving Stocking signs. With this, the authorities have decided to take restrictive measures to stop the progress of the epidemic. Coronavirus – With the closure of commercial establishments or reduced hours of operation. But there is a slight improvement in indicators that reopen stores and everything is going back to “normal”.
The truth is that the continuous opening and closing of trade is not enough nor is it able to stop the epidemic in Brazil and even Harmful to the economy.
“Since the onset of the epidemic, I have been saying that this tragedy of opening and closing will destroy public health and the Brazilian economy, and that is what is happening”, Pedro, an epidemiologist at UFPEL (Federal University of Pelotas) Halal explains. )
According to Halal, recommended by science, in situations in which the virus is uncontrolled, as in Brazil, a Lockdown Short (three weeks) and rigid. “But what Brazil does are long and flexible measures. It will destroy the economy and public health”.
And this is why it is an “accordion effect”, in which the number of dead / infected with Kovid-19 is increasing and then decreasing. “This explains the fact that our waves never materialize. The second wave went above the first and it would go above the third second. Brazil never reduces the numbers like it would with a lockdown. And then we remain completely unproductive in this open and closed. “, Concludes the expert.
For Denise Garrett, an epidemiologist and vice president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute, with a three-week lockdown emergency aid, Would be the ideal solution. “The problem is that there will be little adhesion of this lockout in Brazil because the population is tired of opening and closing. It is ineffective and degrades the population in many ways”, he says.
Garrett believes that there is not only the problem of frequent opening and closing of sites, but also the way it is being used as the basis for inadequate indicators for the situation. For example, the government of São Paulo cited a “fall in hospitalization” in April. As a justification for reducing restrictions And this is wrong.
“It’s a late indicator because you only take action when you get to that point. It’s reactive and not active. You shut everything down to control an already high transmission,” he explains. For the epidemiologist, it would be correct to follow other indicators to reopen the trade – primarily one that measures the level of transmission within the community. Does she:
- A two-week drop in the number of cases – which indicates that the transmission of the virus is actually decreasing;
- The number of new daily cases per 100 thousand inhabitants per day – this varies by location and acceptable risk. The lowest risk is less than 20 new cases / 100 thousand inhabitants;
- The normal rate of positive test for Kovid-19, performed less than 5% daily.
“The ICU bed indicator is secondary. The problem is that we don’t have this data in most places in Brazil. We are blind and ‘running after a loss’: reactive rather than proactive,” Garrett says.
Another point that experts point out is that authorities are prioritizing “wrong” places in cities. She cites open shopping centers and gyms while parks remain closed. “There is a very low probability of infection and the population can use it to exercise, keep in place, and maintain health.”
Tracking and Isolation: Reduction in Transmission Chain
It is clear that closing the business for some time helps reduce cases, as the figures themselves show, but is too subtle and not able to bring about effective reforms in the country according to experts.
Apart from not mentioning the lack of public policies and clear guidelines for the population on distance and wearing masks Decrease in vaccination rate.
According to Andre Ribas Freitas, Scientific Advisor Hubkovid And epidemiologist physician in Faculdade Sao Leopoldo Mandic (SP), countries that already have more control over the epidemic can teach Brazil a lot, such as England, Portugal and, now, the United States, which adopted tracking cases, among many other measures.
“It is tracking the origins of the disease and its ways to go after it. It means going back and quarantining those who were in contact – up to two days ago, more or less – with whom Kovid was to Was tested positive – 19 “.
According to Freitas, it prevents more people from getting infected. Coronavirus And, in this way, it helps to break the transmission chain. “It avoids opening and closing,” he says. According to the doctor, screening can be done with the help of community health agents of SUS (Unified Health System), who already do a fundamental job in coping. Canoe, for example.
But epidemiologists see difficulty in following such a measure. “There is no clarity in communication by governments. It is difficult, if even for wearing masks, to be clear, and imagine more sophisticated things?”
Even with the slow-applying vaccine in Brazil, it would be necessary to adopt more effective measures, as previously mentioned. “Unfortunately, the lack of leadership and epidemic control results in more people dying, becoming infected and the rise of more deadly strains,” the expert says.